Q2 Will Probably Be the Hottest Market Since the Peak of the Pandemic Boom
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for April 2024 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Would you like to have your finger on the pulse of the latest real estate trends, learn valuable buyer and seller tips, and more? Subscribe to my Newsletter below or please contact me with your real estate needs. I would also be happy to provide you with Bay Aea Market Reports for any county you are interested in.
The San Mateo County Housing Market Accelerates Moving into Spring
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for March 2024 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Dramatically Improving Economic Indicators Suggest a Brighter 2024 Housing Market
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for January 2024 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for December 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October, But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for November 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Q3 Median Home Sales Price Is Up About 2% From Q3 2022
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for October 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Low Inventory Remains Huge Factor
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for September 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Scroll down to view previous monthly reports.
Low Inventory Remains Huge Factor
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for August 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Market trends generally stayed on the same path as in recent months.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for July 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Recapping the Spring 2023 Market
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for June 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
The Spring Market Continues to Recover and Accelerate
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for May 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
The Market Continues to Recover, But with Many Dynamics at Play
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for April 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
2023 Market Indicators Turn Positive (But Interest Rates Climb Again)
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for March 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for February 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Read the full report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for January 2023 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators. Read the full report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for December 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
The great majority of indicators – home prices and appreciation rates, sales volumes, overbidding, days-on-market, months supply of inventory, and so on – continue to describe a market that has substantially cooled and “corrected” since spring 2022, when it appears that a long, dramatic, 10-year market upcycle peaked. (Note that a “correction” is not remotely similar to a crash, such as was seen during the subprime loan/foreclosure crisis.) In recent months, luxury home sales have seen larger year-over-year percentage declines than the general market. But thousands of Bay Area homes continue to sell, some very quickly at over asking price: With the shifts in market conditions, pricing correctly has become an imperative for sellers.
Read the full December 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for November 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Though across the Bay Area, thousands of homes continued to be sold – a significant, but declining proportion still selling quickly over list price – the general trend was one of cooling demand, less competition, and declining sales. And, after years of conclusively holding the balance of power, sellers have reacted to the changing circumstances in different ways: Besides increased price reductions since spring, the number of new listings coming on market is well down year over year, and a much higher percentage of listings than normal is being removed from the market without selling. The economy and housing market remain in a period of adjustment, causing many people to be more cautious as they wait to see how things will settle out.
All these factors added up in San Mateo County to October 2022 having the lowest number of
October home sales since at least 2005. On a year-over-year basis, higher-price home sales of $3
million+ fell further (-48%) than the general market (-37%) in October.
Read the full November 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for October 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Virtually across the Bay Area, Q3 median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks. Part of this was due to seasonal trends – median sales prices often peak for the calendar year in Q2, then drop in summer – but part of the decline was clearly due to changing market conditions prompted by shifts in interest rates, inflation, stock markets, and consumer confidence. In this report, home prices will be reviewed from a variety of angles to provide greater context. On the supply and demand side, it appears that after the big drop in demand in early-mid summer, conditions have mostly stabilized: Generally speaking, sales numbers are no longer appreciably dropping, though overbidding statistics continue to decline and days on market to climb.
Read the full October 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for September 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
In early August, we mentioned agents reporting that buyer activity – renewed interest in getting back into the market, visits to open houses, and so on – was picking up due to a number of issues: Price reductions, less competition, an increase in listings for sale, the drop in interest rates, and the dramatic recovery in stock markets. And a rebound in sales and listings going into contract did show up in August data, though volumes were still well down from last year. Across the Bay Area, year-over-year, since spring, home-price appreciation rates and overbidding statistics have generally dropped dramatically, and days-on-market climbed. In the midst of the prevailing uncertainty, many sellers have pulled back on listing their homes, with the number of new listings coming on market remaining much lower year over year. There is usually a September spike in new listing activity after Labor Day, which then fuels the fall market. Read the full September 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for August 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Across the Bay Area, markets have continued to slow and cool.
As illustrated in this report, dramatic changes in demand, inventory, overbidding, price reductions, and year-over-year appreciation rates have usually occurred. Buying and selling continues: Over 5200 home sales were reported to MLS from Napa County to Monterey in July 2022 – many of them selling quickly for over asking price – but that number was down 38% from last year. Median home price appreciation rates in most Bay Area markets have seen steep declines from those in 2021/early 2022. All these changes vary in degree by location and market segment, but the direction of these shifts is near universal.
This report will review year-over-year changes in prices, and in supply and demand, reflecting the significant adjustments from the heated (often overheated) conditions recently the norm, but also look at longer-term trends to provide greater historical context. There is also a comparison of home prices within the local market, as well as across the Bay Area.
Read the full August 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for July 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Leaning into Market Headwinds, Appreciation Rate Drops
The impacts of this year’s severe economic headwinds – soaring inflation and interest rates, stock market declines, fears of recession – on Bay Area real estate markets are speeding up. The first effect was on buyer demand (fewer buyers, offers and listings into contract), leading to changes in supply (more homes for sale, more price reductions), which began to alter buyer and seller psychology and the balance of power between them. Especially after one of the longest, most dramatic upcycles in history, the psychology, circumstances and plans of individual buyers and sellers shift unevenly in the early months of a transition as they try to make sense of changing market realities. Eventually statistics based on closed sales – prices, appreciation rates, overbidding, days on market – slowly start to adjust. Generally speaking, closed sales are lagging indicators of what occurred in the economy and market weeks and months earlier.
Read the full July 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for June 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Clear Indications of Changing Market Dynamics
Sales are declining, and the numbers of active listings and price reductions are increasing. But the homes that are selling are still, on average, selling quickly for well over asking: In May 2022, 84% of county sales closed for over list price, with an average overbid of 11%. Median sales prices and year-over-year appreciation rates still remain high.
When an overheated market cools, the change is typically gradual (absent a disaster event), and does not mean the market is weak by any normal standard. As an analogy, if traffic is going 120 miles per hour and drops to 75, it feels a lot slower, but cannot reasonably be described as slow. After 2 years of scorching demand, it may be difficult to remember what a more normal market feels like, but people will continue to have excellent personal and financial reasons to buy and sell homes.
Read the full June 2022 report.
The
San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for May 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Amid Dramatic Home-Price Gains to New Peaks, Preliminary Signs of Markets Shifting Cooler
In April 2022, the Bay Area continued to see appreciation, overbidding and days-on-market reflecting extremely intense demand. But sales are a lagging indicator reflecting offers accepted 3-6 weeks earlier. April sales mostly reflect buyers who locked in mortgage rates before the big late-March/April jumps, buyers highly motivated to buy before their interest rate locks expired, adding short-term pressure to demand.
Declining interest rates stimulate demand: In recent years, large rate declines subsidized much of the surge in home prices.
Escalating interest rates initially fueled demand in early 2022 as buyers rushed to avoid further rises, but at a certain point, big increases, especially if coupled with peak prices, batter affordability. And all buyers – even all-cash buyers – can be affected financially and psychologically by stock market declines and economic uncertainty. If continuing, these factors can be expected to dampen purchase activity.
Read the full May 2022 report.
The San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for April 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
Soaring Interest Rates & Housing Costs; Continuing Strong Demand, Low Inventory of Listings & High Market Velocity
The market remained heated, probably overheated, in Q1 as our review of home-price appreciation and supply and demand indicators will illustrate. However, as of March 31st, mortgage interest rates have skyrocketed 50% in 2022, with a particularly large jump in March. Because of the time involved in the home-buying process – the search, loan qualification, going into contract, escrow, closing sale – any significant effects of the recent spike won’t show up until Q2. Rates may stabilize, rise further, or drop back down – they can change very quickly – and the exact, follow-on effects are unknown. Interest rates are only one factor: Local economic conditions, financial markets, wealth creation, housing affordability, consumer confidence, inflation, migration, the pandemic, war, debt and government policies can all have big market impacts, and they are flashing both positive and negative signals.
The San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for March 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
So far in 2022, Bay Area real estate markets appear largely unfazed by higher interest rates, volatility in financial markets, and troubling international events. The prevailing dynamic remains one of strong buyer demand competing for an inadequate inventory of listings for sale: Crowded open houses, multiple offers, fierce overbidding, fast sales, and upward pressure on home prices remain the norm. That is not to say there haven’t been buyers negatively impacted by higher loan rates and/or recent declines in stock portfolios; and some buyers and sellers have become more hesitant or paused their plans, awaiting more clarity amid recent developments. But not enough to move the needle on the fundamentally very-high-demand/very-low-supply conditions which dominated 2021.
The San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for February 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
February 2022 began with a wide mix of economic indicators: Interest rates and inflation increasing, financial markets turbulent, but buyer demand is strong and the inventory of listings for sale very low. After the mid-winter slowdown, new listing activity and sales climb rapidly through spring, typically the most dynamic selling season of the year.
The San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for January 2022 reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
This San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for December 2021 (PDF) reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
November and December typically see very significant seasonal slowdowns in market activity, and in January we will issue our 2021 market review, looking back at what has certainly been one of the highest demand markets in history. In the meantime, this report will look at:
* The biggest Bay Area home sales of 2021 YTD, and the highest-priced listings currently on the market
* Median home price appreciation by property type and bedroom count
* What kind of home would $5 million buy you in 2021
* Monthly supply and demand indicators reviewing trends in new and active listings, listings going into contract, and price reductions
* General market and luxury home sales trends by month
* What it costs and what you get when buying a 4+ bedroom, 3500+ sq.ft. house in markets around the Bay Area
Read the housing market report. (PDF)
This San Mateo County Real Estate Trends & Market Report for November 2021 (PDF) reviews home price appreciation by city, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.
As the year begins to wind down and move into the mid-winter holidays, the market typically slows down as well: The number of new listings declines, to finally plunge in December, with sales volume following one step behind. Price reductions often jump, and some listings, especially of more expensive homes, are pulled off the market until the market wakes up in the new year – usually in late January or February depending on the weather and other factors. Of course, buying and selling occur at all times of the year, including in mid-winter, but commonly at a much reduced rate. Note that typical market seasonality was often upended in 2020 due to the pandemic; more normal seasonal trends seem to have returned in 2021.
For buyers, the coming months can offer substantial opportunities in the form of reduced competition, fewer multiple offers, less overbidding, more room to negotiate, and often significantly better deals. This is an excellent time for buyers to take a second look at listings that haven’t sold, and to make aggressive offers. Read the housing market report. (PDF)
Would you like to have your finger on the pulse of the latest real estate trends, learn valuable buyer and seller tips, and more? Subscribe to my Newsletter below or please contact me with your real estate needs. I would also be happy to provide you with Bay Aea Market Reports for any county you are interested in.
Compass
2014 Palmetto Ave, Unit C
Pacifica, CA 94044
CA DRE# 02066571
Daniel Smith